http://www.floridatoday.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/201007030108/NEWS01/7030317
BY JIM WAYMER * FLORIDA TODAY * JULY 3, 2010
Theoretically, there’s up to a 4 in 10 chance of tar balls floating within 20 miles of Brevard County’s coast, based on some early federal models.
But Friday, federal oceanographers said the more likely scenario is a 2 in 10 chance, and the chance tapers off as the Gulf Stream bends farther offshore.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released its latest model to help local emergency responders gauge what resources they might need.
“The idea is that you have some kind of an idea where you ought to be focusing your effort,” said Chris Barker, a physical oceanographer in NOAA’s emergency response division in Seattle.
The model also showed:
The Florida Keys, Miami and Fort Lauderdale areas have a 61 to 80 percent chance of oil within 20 miles of shore due to the Loop Current, with the chances diminishing as the Gulf Steam veers east.
West Florida has a 20 percent chance or less of oil effects.
More than half of the scenarios indicate some part of the oil gets caught in the Loop Current and exits via the Florida Straits.
“There’s not a lot of oil getting stuck in the Keys,” Barker said of the model’s results.
The probabilities are based on 500 spill scenarios using historical wind and current data. A tendril of oil that had been heading to the north end of the Loop Current looks to be spinning in the Gulf.
“There’s probably some tar balls circulating in what we call eddy Franklin,” Barker said. The large eddy — named after Benjamin Franklin — has pinched off and now spins in the central Gulf, sparing a link to currents that lead to the Keys and ultimately Brevard.
Oceanographers aren’t sure if or when the eddy might migrate to reconnect to those currents.
“There hasn’t been much, but there has been some oil in the Loop Current that made it to the Florida Straits and the East Coast before this eddy broke off,” said Robert Weisberg, an oceanographer at University of South Florida who’s also modeling the oil’s path. “There’s already been some oil up the East Coast.”
Theoretically, there’s up to a 4 in 10 chance of tar balls floating within 20 miles of Brevard County’s coast, based on some early federal models.
But Friday, federal oceanographers said the more likely scenario is a 2 in 10 chance, and the chance tapers off as the Gulf Stream bends farther offshore.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released its latest model to help local emergency responders gauge what resources they might need.
“The idea is that you have some kind of an idea where you ought to be focusing your effort,” said Chris Barker, a physical oceanographer in NOAA’s emergency response division in Seattle.
The model also showed:
The Florida Keys, Miami and Fort Lauderdale areas have a 61 to 80 percent chance of oil within 20 miles of shore due to the Loop Current, with the chances diminishing as the Gulf Steam veers east.
West Florida has a 20 percent chance or less of oil effects.
More than half of the scenarios indicate some part of the oil gets caught in the Loop Current and exits via the Florida Straits.
“There’s not a lot of oil getting stuck in the Keys,” Barker said of the model’s results.
The probabilities are based on 500 spill scenarios using historical wind and current data. A tendril of oil that had been heading to the north end of the Loop Current looks to be spinning in the Gulf.
“There’s probably some tar balls circulating in what we call eddy Franklin,” Barker said. The large eddy — named after Benjamin Franklin — has pinched off and now spins in the central Gulf, sparing a link to currents that lead to the Keys and ultimately Brevard.
Oceanographers aren’t sure if or when the eddy might migrate to reconnect to those currents.
“There hasn’t been much, but there has been some oil in the Loop Current that made it to the Florida Straits and the East Coast before this eddy broke off,” said Robert Weisberg, an oceanographer at University of South Florida who’s also modeling the oil’s path. “There’s already been some oil up the East Coast.”
He doesn’t put much stock in NOAA’s projections for coastal impacts.
“These statements of probability I don’t think are very useful,” Weisberg said.
Nor does Mitch Roffer of Roffer’s Ocean Fishing Forecasting Service, a scientific-consulting company. His analysis of satellite images shows a “water-oil mix” passing offshore of Brevard. “It’s been going by us for 10 days now, maybe two weeks,” said Roffer, who lives in Melbourne Beach. He and the USF oceanographers were ahead of NOAA in predicting the oil would enter the Loop Current.
Despite uncertainties about if or when oil will beach here, local volunteers began training this week on what to do if they see tar. The mantra: Don’t touch, dial “2-1-1” to report it.
“Your safety is our main concern,” Deborah Coles, an emergency coordinator told about 20 volunteers Wednesday night at the Brevard County’s Emergency Operation Center in Rockledge.
While officials assure the oil would be highly weathered and non-toxic by the time it beached here, they stress a hands-off approach.
“What scares me is these hurricanes,” said Larry Weber, president of Keep Brevard Beautiful, a nonprofit coordinating local volunteers to watch for oil. “Then, it’s the unknown.”
Weathered crude is unlikely to pose risk from fumes, according to Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. But a potential risk does exist for it to aerosolize into airborne droplets or volatilize from pressure washing, CDC says, and odor is not a reliable indication of the health hazard.
The Occupational Safety and Health Administration requires volunteers be trained before responding to oil spills.
The section captains for Keep Brevard Beautiful are training so they can teach others how to become coastal watchers. Another training session is planned Wednesday in Cocoa Beach.
They watch for and report oil. Only properly trained contractors hired by BP are allowed to clean it up. That way, the chain of custody for any tar balls is clear and BP can be held accountable for the cleanup, Coles said.
Seven volunteers are assigned to roughly half-mile segments. Each person monitors for oil one day a week.
Jason Smith of Satellite Beach brought a pancake-sized tar ball to Wednesday’s training session. He said he found it about a month-and-a-half ago along Patrick Air Force Base and hasn’t been able to get anyone at the U.S. Coast Guard to come and get it.
Officials await tests to determine whether a pancake-sized tar mat, picked up on Melbourne Beach on Friday, is from the BP oil spill. Tests found two tar balls discovered June 22 on Satellite Beach were processed mechanical oil from a boat’s bilge, not the BP spill.
Clumps of oil on Brevard beaches are not new. They form naturally from oil seeping from the ocean floor or from oily bilges and ballast tanks of passing ships. Tar lapped up on Brevard beaches in the 1940s when German U-boats sank merchant ships and oil tankers heading to Europe during World War II.
Larger tar chunks can result from the manner in which oil clumps together after a spill or upwelling.
But local tar balls are typically small and buried. They cling to feet, smell up the beach as they evaporate and generally settle out among the washed-up seaweed at the dune line. Eventually, they dry up, turn brown and crumble.
Contact Waymer at 242-3663 or jwaymer@floridatoday.com.
Special thanks to Richard Charter