http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_edvxM1dkFlo/TC4QGB_LFoI/AAAAAAAAAjI/iU0SdHaxQVs/s1600/SkyTruth_dhrig_spill-csk-28jun10-interp.jpg

Two CSK radar satellite images (black-and-white) are superimposed on a cloudy MODIS satellite image (color) taken June 28, 2010. The radar on the left was acquired at 6:56 pm, and the image to the right at 7:44 pm local time on June 28. Only the western half of the oil slick is visible on these images:

COSMO-SkyMed (CSK) radar satellite images acquired June 28, 2010. Images courtesy of CSTARS.

Tropical Storm Alex was roiling the Gulf when these images were taken. Weather data buoys in the vicinity recorded wind speeds of 6-11 meters/second (13-25 miles/hr), strong enough to break up areas of thin oil sheen and possibly render them undetectable. We infer that the dark areas enclosed within the orange line are thicker patches of oil slick. Oil is reaching farther to the west than we’ve seen recently, impacting Timbalier Bay and Terrebonne Bay.

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Posted By John to SkyTruth at 7/02/2010 12:08:00 PM
—
John Amos
John@skytruth.org
P.O. Box 3283
Shepherdstown, WV 25443-3283
phone: 304-260-8886
skype: skytruth.amos
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Special thanks to Richard Charter

Date: Fri, 2 Jul 2010 16:02:10 -0400 (EDT)

NOAA has used modeling of historical wind and ocean currents to project the likelihood that surface oil from the Deepwater Horizon/BP oil spill will impact additional U.S. coastline. This modeling, part of NOAA’s comprehensive response to the unprecedented Gulf oil disaster, can help guide the ongoing preparedness, response and cleanup efforts.

“This NOAA model shows where oil may be likely to travel, thereby giving coastal states and communities information about potential threats of shoreline impacts. This kind of information should assist in the preparation of adequate preparedness measures,” said Jane Lubchenco, Ph.D., under secretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator. “NOAA is strongly committed to providing reliable information to the public and to responders at all levels.”

In the technical report being released today, the model’s results aggregate information from 500 distinct scenarios (model outcomes). Each assumes a 90-day oil flow rate of 33,000 barrels per day – the net amount from the flow rate ceiling of 60,000 barrels per day (the lower bound is 35,000 barrels/day) minus the daily estimated amount being skimmed, burned, and/or collected by the Top Hat mechanism. The model also accounts for the natural process of oil “weathering” or breaking down, and considers oil a threat to the shoreline if there is enough to cause a dull sheen within 20 miles of the coast. If, for example, 250 of the 500 scenarios indicated a shoreline threat for a particular area, the overall threat for that area would be a 50 percent probability.
Considering these factors, the NOAA model indicates:

The coastlines with the highest probability for impact (81 to 100 percent) extend from the Mississippi River Delta to the western panhandle of Florida where there has been and will likely continue to be oil impacts.
Along U.S. Gulf of Mexico shorelines, the oil is more likely to move east than west, with much of the coast of Texas showing a relatively low probability of oiling (ranging from less than one percent in southern Texas to up to 40 percent near the Louisiana border).
Much of the west coast of Florida has a low probability (20 percent down to less than one percent) of oiling, but the Florida Keys, Miami and Fort Lauderdale areas have a greater probability (61 to 80 percent) due to the potential influence of the Loop Current. Any oil reaching this area would have spent considerable time degrading and dispersing and would be in the form of scattered tar balls and not a large surface slick of oil.

There is a low probability of shoreline impacts from eastern central Florida up the Eastern Seaboard (20 percent diminishing to less than one percent). Potential impacts become increasingly unlikely north of North Carolina as the Gulf Stream moves away from the continental U.S. at Cape Hatteras. If oil does reach these areas, it will be in the form of tar balls or highly weathered oil.

The threat outlined in the model does not necessarily indicate that oil will come ashore. Whether or not oil comes ashore will depend upon wind and ocean currents at the time. In addition to these and other natural factors, booms and other countermeasures could be used to mitigate the actual coastal contact.

The modeling results released today are based on several simplifying assumptions. In particular, they do not start with the current footprint of the spill, but rather model the spill beginning at day one, based on historical weather and current patterns. Also, the analysis does not adjust for effects of dispersants on the volume, weathering and movement of oil on the water’s surface. To date, no significant amount of oil has entered the Loop Current.

NOAA will continue to closely monitor the movement of the oil slick and develop daily 72-hour forecast projections. NOAA will also produce updated models of the long-term outlook as new data are gathered.

Updated scenarios and more information about the model can be found at:
http://response.restoration.noaa.gov/deepwaterhorizon/longterm_outlook.

NOAA’s mission is to understand and predict changes in the Earth’s environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and to conserve and manage our coastal and marine resources. Visit us on www.noaa.gov and Facebook.

For more information about the information in this release, please contact Rachel Wilhelm at 202-482-3978, Rachel.Wilhelm@NOAA.gov orShannon Gilson at 202-482-4883, sgilson@doc.gov.

Special thanks to Richard Charter

http://www.nola.com/news/gulf-oil-spill/index.ssf/2010/07/burning_and_flaring_of_oil_lea.html

Published: Friday, July 02, 2010, 7:20 PM
Times-Picayune Staff

With controlled burns temporarily suspended on account of tempestuous weather, Gulf waters have had a reprieve lately from the roaring fires and billowing smoke plumes that, since late April, have come to overwhelm the oily seascape.

But as fire teams prepare to resume their work, the burning and flaring of oil is attracting growing criticism from environmentalists who worry about the hazards it poses to wildlife and Gulf Coast communities. Some say that BP isn’t investing enough energy in other methods of cleaning up the roughly 2.2 million to 4.2 million barrels of oil that have spewed into the Gulf of Mexico as of June 29, according to the latest estimates.

As oil continues to pour into the Gulf, the question of how to optimize cleanup efficiency while minimizing environmental risks is still up for debate. Even comparing the efficiency of different methods of cleanup is difficult.
About 670,000 barrels of oily water have been skimmed as of July 1st, BP says, but there’s no telling what proportion of that is oil.

By comparison, controlled burns, also known as in-situ burns, have collectively removed 238,000 barrels of oil from the water’s surface since they were initiated by the Coast Guard in late April. The burning has cleared up roughly 6 percent to 11 percent of the total spill volume — an amount that exceeds the generally accepted estimate for the total amount of oil spilled during the 1989 Exxon Valdez incident.

But burning is fraught with complications. The crude that litters the Gulf is highly emulsified and depleted in hydrogen, which means it doesn’t burn readily. In many cases, it’s easier to skim it off the surface. For the oil to sustain a fire, it needs to be condensed to several millimeters’ thickness — a task accomplished by retrofitted fishing vessels that work in pairs, dragging a 500-foot line of fireproof boom between them in a narrow U-shaped arc.

On any given day, as many as 10 fire teams are on the water, corralling oil and setting it alight. As the fishing vessels move in tandem at a speed of less than 1 mph, oil at the water’s surface pools at the apex of the U. When roughly one-third of the area encased by the boom — anywhere from 500 to 1,000 barrels of oil in volume — is filled, an igniter boat releases uses a flare to set fire to a plastic container filled with gelled fuel, which floats toward the pooled oil and eventually burns it.

The ships stay in motion as the fire blazes; slowing down would allow the oil to thin out and eventually extinguish the fire. They try to tow into the wind so the smoke blows away from the vessels, but they’re not always able to.
Oil occasionally escapes beyond the boom and creates smaller fires outside the contained area, but the slicks die off themselves within a matter of minutes. The fire inside the boom burns two to three millimeters of oil every 60 seconds, rising as high as 100 feet and generating massive plumes of smoke in its wake.

The National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health, which has been monitoring air quality aboard responder vessels, has recommended that respirators be made available to all burn crew members. As it stands, not all fire team vessels are fully equipped, and crew members head inside the ship’s cabin if the smoke gets too heavy.

“Based on the air monitoring we’ve done to date, we haven’t had any situations where respirators have been required,” said BP consultant Alan Allen. “We’re in the process of determining the best way to [distribute respirators] that so that they have the option to wear masks.”

Gulf Coast residents have requested that controlled burns only be conducted when the wind blows out, according to environmental consultant Wilma Subra, who works with the Louisiana Environmental Action Network. Allen says that hasn’t been necessary because the in-situ burns occur 40 to 50 miles from the shore.

“If we were to do burns within 10 miles or so we would activate the SMART protocols,” he said, referring to a monitoring program for burns and dispersants designed cooperatively by four federal agencies.

Data from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency show that concentrations of airborne particles from controlled burns are higher than normal at two or more monitoring stations along the Louisiana coast. The agency is also monitoring concentrations of volatile organic compounds evaporating from the oil on the water’s surface. It has classified the air quality along the coastline as “unhealthy for sensitive groups,” at worst.

But some residents have complained about nausea, sore throats, burning eyes, and respiratory problems, and some try to avoid outdoor activity when the wind blows in. Some of the health complaints may not stem from oil burning, but from the oil’s propensity to be churned by wind and waves into an aerosol that can blow onshore.

Subra says BP should cut back on in-situ burns and focus on skimming.
“If they can surround it by a boom they should be able to skim it rather than burn it,” she said.

Critics also note burning can imperil wildlife. Last week, the Center for Biological Diversity filed suit against BP under the Clean Water Act, charging the company with burning endangered sea turtles alive in the course of its cleanup efforts. In response, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Marine Fisheries Service announced it would place a NOAA observer with each fire team to inspect oil corrals before they are ignited.

“You can’t help but recognize, if we’re collecting oil along the convergence line, the oil will be ideal for collecting but that may also be an area where there’s a potential for turtles to gather,” Allen said. “We go to great lengths…to try to avoid including that in our burn.”

Some oil is being burned using another method: flaring.
Only one of the two rigs collecting oil from the leaking well has the capacity to process and store the crude oil it captures. That ship, the Discoverer Enterprise, is connected to a cap that contains some of the gushing crude and feeds it to the rig through a riser. The Enterprise is able to isolate and burn the gas, store the oil, and pump the leftover water back into the ocean.
Its cohort, the Q4000, can’t process or store the crude oil it collects. So the vessel burns both oil and gas through an “EverGreen” burner, said to provide a relatively clean burn by eliminating visible smoke emissions. Since it went into operation on June 16, the Q4000 has burned an average of 8,556 barrels of oil per day, totaling 119,780 barrels as of June 29 — about half the oil burned thus far.

Burning oil aboard the Q4000 isn’t harmless, says Subra, but it’s far preferable to burning it off the water’s surface. Gas flaring, meanwhile, is a waste of potentially usable energy, and further burdens the atmosphere with unnecessary greenhouse gas emissions, according to NOAA.

Together the Q4000 and the Discoverer Enterprise have flared more than 1 billion cubic feet of gas — eight times the volume of the Louisiana Superdome. That’s a significant amount — it’s more than 1 percent of the total amount of gas flared in the entire United States in 2008, according to satellite data collected by NOAA’s Earth Observation Group.

BP plans to deploy a third containment vessel, the Helix Producer, but has thus far been foiled by the weather. Like the Enterprise, the Helix Producer would separate oil, water, and gas and flare off the gas. The Producer, scheduled to deploy Tuesday, is expected to increase oil collection by 25,000 barrels per day..

That can’t come soon enough for critics of burning oil in-situ and aboard the Q4000.

“At least they’re getting that material off of the slick and out of the water column,” said Subra. “But there’s still a long way to go before they recover all oil that’s coming out of that well head.”

Aimee Miles wrote this report. She can be reached at amiles@timespicayune.com or 504.826.3318.
Special thanks to Richard Charter

http://www.floridatoday.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/201007030108/NEWS01/7030317

BY JIM WAYMER * FLORIDA TODAY * JULY 3, 2010

Theoretically, there’s up to a 4 in 10 chance of tar balls floating within 20 miles of Brevard County’s coast, based on some early federal models.

But Friday, federal oceanographers said the more likely scenario is a 2 in 10 chance, and the chance tapers off as the Gulf Stream bends farther offshore.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released its latest model to help local emergency responders gauge what resources they might need.

“The idea is that you have some kind of an idea where you ought to be focusing your effort,” said Chris Barker, a physical oceanographer in NOAA’s emergency response division in Seattle.

The model also showed:

The Florida Keys, Miami and Fort Lauderdale areas have a 61 to 80 percent chance of oil within 20 miles of shore due to the Loop Current, with the chances diminishing as the Gulf Steam veers east.

West Florida has a 20 percent chance or less of oil effects.

More than half of the scenarios indicate some part of the oil gets caught in the Loop Current and exits via the Florida Straits.

“There’s not a lot of oil getting stuck in the Keys,” Barker said of the model’s results.
The probabilities are based on 500 spill scenarios using historical wind and current data. A tendril of oil that had been heading to the north end of the Loop Current looks to be spinning in the Gulf.

“There’s probably some tar balls circulating in what we call eddy Franklin,” Barker said. The large eddy — named after Benjamin Franklin — has pinched off and now spins in the central Gulf, sparing a link to currents that lead to the Keys and ultimately Brevard.
Oceanographers aren’t sure if or when the eddy might migrate to reconnect to those currents.

“There hasn’t been much, but there has been some oil in the Loop Current that made it to the Florida Straits and the East Coast before this eddy broke off,” said Robert Weisberg, an oceanographer at University of South Florida who’s also modeling the oil’s path. “There’s already been some oil up the East Coast.”

Theoretically, there’s up to a 4 in 10 chance of tar balls floating within 20 miles of Brevard County’s coast, based on some early federal models.

But Friday, federal oceanographers said the more likely scenario is a 2 in 10 chance, and the chance tapers off as the Gulf Stream bends farther offshore.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released its latest model to help local emergency responders gauge what resources they might need.

“The idea is that you have some kind of an idea where you ought to be focusing your effort,” said Chris Barker, a physical oceanographer in NOAA’s emergency response division in Seattle.

The model also showed:

The Florida Keys, Miami and Fort Lauderdale areas have a 61 to 80 percent chance of oil within 20 miles of shore due to the Loop Current, with the chances diminishing as the Gulf Steam veers east.

West Florida has a 20 percent chance or less of oil effects.

More than half of the scenarios indicate some part of the oil gets caught in the Loop Current and exits via the Florida Straits.

“There’s not a lot of oil getting stuck in the Keys,” Barker said of the model’s results.
The probabilities are based on 500 spill scenarios using historical wind and current data. A tendril of oil that had been heading to the north end of the Loop Current looks to be spinning in the Gulf.

“There’s probably some tar balls circulating in what we call eddy Franklin,” Barker said. The large eddy — named after Benjamin Franklin — has pinched off and now spins in the central Gulf, sparing a link to currents that lead to the Keys and ultimately Brevard.

Oceanographers aren’t sure if or when the eddy might migrate to reconnect to those currents.

“There hasn’t been much, but there has been some oil in the Loop Current that made it to the Florida Straits and the East Coast before this eddy broke off,” said Robert Weisberg, an oceanographer at University of South Florida who’s also modeling the oil’s path. “There’s already been some oil up the East Coast.”

He doesn’t put much stock in NOAA’s projections for coastal impacts.

“These statements of probability I don’t think are very useful,” Weisberg said.

Nor does Mitch Roffer of Roffer’s Ocean Fishing Forecasting Service, a scientific-consulting company. His analysis of satellite images shows a “water-oil mix” passing offshore of Brevard. “It’s been going by us for 10 days now, maybe two weeks,” said Roffer, who lives in Melbourne Beach. He and the USF oceanographers were ahead of NOAA in predicting the oil would enter the Loop Current.

Despite uncertainties about if or when oil will beach here, local volunteers began training this week on what to do if they see tar. The mantra: Don’t touch, dial “2-1-1” to report it.
“Your safety is our main concern,” Deborah Coles, an emergency coordinator told about 20 volunteers Wednesday night at the Brevard County’s Emergency Operation Center in Rockledge.

While officials assure the oil would be highly weathered and non-toxic by the time it beached here, they stress a hands-off approach.

“What scares me is these hurricanes,” said Larry Weber, president of Keep Brevard Beautiful, a nonprofit coordinating local volunteers to watch for oil. “Then, it’s the unknown.”

Weathered crude is unlikely to pose risk from fumes, according to Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. But a potential risk does exist for it to aerosolize into airborne droplets or volatilize from pressure washing, CDC says, and odor is not a reliable indication of the health hazard.

The Occupational Safety and Health Administration requires volunteers be trained before responding to oil spills.

The section captains for Keep Brevard Beautiful are training so they can teach others how to become coastal watchers. Another training session is planned Wednesday in Cocoa Beach.

They watch for and report oil. Only properly trained contractors hired by BP are allowed to clean it up. That way, the chain of custody for any tar balls is clear and BP can be held accountable for the cleanup, Coles said.

Seven volunteers are assigned to roughly half-mile segments. Each person monitors for oil one day a week.

Jason Smith of Satellite Beach brought a pancake-sized tar ball to Wednesday’s training session. He said he found it about a month-and-a-half ago along Patrick Air Force Base and hasn’t been able to get anyone at the U.S. Coast Guard to come and get it.

Officials await tests to determine whether a pancake-sized tar mat, picked up on Melbourne Beach on Friday, is from the BP oil spill. Tests found two tar balls discovered June 22 on Satellite Beach were processed mechanical oil from a boat’s bilge, not the BP spill.

Clumps of oil on Brevard beaches are not new. They form naturally from oil seeping from the ocean floor or from oily bilges and ballast tanks of passing ships. Tar lapped up on Brevard beaches in the 1940s when German U-boats sank merchant ships and oil tankers heading to Europe during World War II.

Larger tar chunks can result from the manner in which oil clumps together after a spill or upwelling.

But local tar balls are typically small and buried. They cling to feet, smell up the beach as they evaporate and generally settle out among the washed-up seaweed at the dune line. Eventually, they dry up, turn brown and crumble.

Contact Waymer at 242-3663 or jwaymer@floridatoday.com.
Special thanks to Richard Charter

Dear Friends,

Thanks for coming to Hands Across the Sand on June 26 to take a stand against offshore oil drilling while supporting clean, renewable energy alternatives.

As a reminder, I am sending a link to The Energy Independence Pledge that you signed and ask that you now forward this message to others and ask them to take the pledge too. Together we can begin to make the change that is needed to protect our environment and natural resources for future generations.

To learn more about Green Living & Energy Education (GLEE), go to www.keysglee.com and sign up for the free e-newsletter, sign up as a volunteer or become a member to support the work being done for a sustainable future.

Thanks for sustaining the momentum, Bridget

Bridget McDonald
Green Living & Energy Education (GLEE)
info@keysGLEE.com
305-923-1994-cell
www.keysGLEE.com
PO Box 754
Key West FL 33041