Scientist: \u2018Miami, As We Know It Today, Is Doomed. It\u2019s Not A Question Of If. It\u2019s A Question Of When.\u2019<\/p>\n
By Joe Romm on Jun 23, 2013 at 12:40 pm<\/p>\n
Jeff Goodell has a must-read piece in Rolling Stone, \u201cGoodbye, Miami: By century\u2019s end, rising sea levels will turn the nation\u2019s urban fantasyland into an American Atlantis. But long before the city is completely underwater, chaos will begin.\u201d<\/p>\n Goodell has talked to many of the leading experts on Miami including Harold Wanless, chair of University of Miami\u2019s geological sciences, department, source of the headline quote. The reason climate change dooms Miami is a combination of sea level rise, the inevitability of ever more severe storms and storm surges \u2014 and its fateful, fatal geology and topology, which puts \u201cmore than $416 billion in assets at risk to storm-related flooding and sea-level rise\u201d:<\/p>\n South Florida has two big problems. The first is its remarkably flat topography. Half the area that surrounds Miami is less than five feet above sea level. Its highest natural elevation, a limestone ridge that runs from Palm Beach to just south of the city, averages a scant 12 feet. With just three feet of sea-level rise, more than a third of southern Florida will vanish; at six feet, more than half will be gone; if the seas rise 12 feet, South Florida will be little more than an isolated archipelago surrounded by abandoned buildings and crumbling overpasses. And the waters won\u2019t just come in from the east \u2013 because the region is so flat, rising seas will come in nearly as fast from the west too, through the Everglades.<\/p>\n Even worse, South Florida sits above a vast and porous limestone plateau. \u201cImagine Swiss cheese, and you\u2019ll have a pretty good idea what the rock under southern Florida looks like,\u201d says Glenn Landers, a senior engineer at the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. This means water moves around easily \u2013 it seeps into yards at high tide, bubbles up on golf courses, flows through underground caverns, corrodes building foundations from below. \u201cConventional sea walls and barriers are not effective here,\u201d says Robert Daoust, an ecologist at ARCADIS, a Dutch firm that specializes in engineering solutions to rising seas. <\/p>\n The latest research \u201csuggests that sea level could rise more than six feet by the end of the century,\u201d as Goodell notes, and \u201cWanless believes that it could continue rising a foot each decade after that.\u201d<\/p>\n Prudence dictates we plan for the plausible worst case. Coastal studies experts told the NY Times back in 2010, \u201cFor coastal management purposes, a [sea level] rise of 7 feet (2 meters) should be utilized for planning major infrastructure.\u201d<\/p>\n Unfortunately, sea level rise is already 60% faster than projected. Goodell reports:<\/p>\n \u201cWith six feet of sea-level rise, South Florida is toast,\u201d says Tom Gustafson, a former Florida speaker of the House and a climate-change-policy advocate. Even if we cut carbon pollution overnight, it won\u2019t save us. Ohio State glaciologist Jason Box has said he believes we already have 70 feet of sea-level rise baked into the system.<\/p>\n Certainly without sharp cuts in CO2 starting ASAP, Jason Box is correct (see \u201cManmade Carbon Pollution Has Already Put Us On Track For 69 Feet Of Sea Level Rise\u201d).<\/p>\n So we need a combination of aggressive mitigation combined with massive spending to develop completely new adaptation solutions for Miami to have any serious chance of surviving this century intact.<\/p>\n Sadly, Florida is one of the last places in the country where such action and planning can be expected: Those solutions are not likely to be forthcoming from the political realm. The statehouse in Tallahassee is a monument to climate-change denial. \u201cYou can\u2019t even say the words \u2018climate change\u2019 on the House floor without being run out of the building,\u201d says Gustafson. Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, positioning himself for a run at the presidency in 2016, is another denier, still trotting out the tired old argument that \u201cno matter how many job-killing\u00ad laws we pass, our government can\u2019t control the weather.\u201d Gov. Rick Scott, a Tea Party Republican, says he\u2019s \u201cnot convinced\u201d that global warming is caused by human beings. Since taking office in 2011, Scott has targeted environmental protections of every sort and slashed the budget of the South Florida Water Management District, the agency in charge of managing water supply in the region, as well as restoration of the Everglades. \u201cThere is no serious thinking, no serious planning, about any of this going on at the state level,\u201d says Chuck Watson, a disaster-\u00adimpact analyst with longtime experience in Florida. \u201cThe view is, \u2018Well, if it gets real bad, the federal government will bail us out.\u2019 It is beyond denial; it is flat-out delusional.\u201d<\/p>\n Goodell\u2019s whole article is worth reading, not just for the sober view of what South Florida faces but also for the beautiful writing:<\/p>\n When it rains in Miami, it\u2019s spooky. Blue sky vanishes and suddenly water is everywhere, pooling in streets, flooding parking lots, turning intersections into submarine crossings. Even for a nonbeliever like me, it feels biblical, as if God were punishing the good citizens of Miami Beach for spending too much time on the dance floor. At Alton Road and 10th Street, we watched a woman in a Toyota stall at a traffic light as water rose up to the doors. A man waded out to help her, water up to his knees. This flooding has gotten worse with each passing year, happening not only after torrential rainstorms but during high tides, too, when rising sea water backs up through the city\u2019s antiquated drainage system. Wanless, 71, who drives an SUV that is littered with research equipment, notebooks and mud, shook his head with pity. \u201cThis is what global warming looks like,\u201d he explained. \u201cIf you live in South Florida and you\u2019re not building a boat, you\u2019re not facing reality.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" http:\/\/thinkprogress.org\/climate\/issue\/?mobile=nc This is my favorite new site with great coverage of all things climate change. DV Scientist: \u2018Miami, As We Know It Today, Is Doomed. It\u2019s Not A Question Of If. It\u2019s A Question Of When.\u2019 By Joe Romm on Jun 23, 2013 at 12:40 pm Jeff Goodell has a must-read piece in Rolling Stone, … Continue reading Think Progress: Scientist: “Miami, As We Know It Today, Is Doomed. It’s Not a Question If. It’s a Question of When.”<\/span> ![\"miami\"](\"https:\/\/www.reefrelieffounders.com\/drilling\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/06\/miami1.jpg\")
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