We’d like to bring your attention to a paper recently published in *Nature
\n Climate Change *titled: *Projections of climate conditions that increase
\n coral disease susceptibility and pathogen abundance and virulence. *<\/p>\n
We present and compare climate model projections of temperature conditions
\n that will increase coral susceptibility to disease, pathogen abundance and
\n pathogen virulence under both moderate (RCP 4.5) and fossil fuel aggressive
\n (RCP 8.5) emissions scenarios. We also compare projections for the onset of
\n disease-conducive conditions and severe annual coral bleaching, and produce
\n a disease risk summary that combines climate stress with stress caused by
\n local human activities.<\/p>\n
Some highlight results:<\/p>\n
1. Disease is as likely to cause coral mortality as bleaching in the coming
\n decades. As evidence of this, at 96% of reef locations at least 2 of the 3
\n temperature conditions examined occur before annual severe coral bleaching
\n is projected to occur.<\/p>\n
2. There are areas that meet 2 or all 3 of the temperature conditions
\n examined and have high or very high anthropogenic stress. These
\n are priority locations for reducing stress caused by local human activities
\n and testing management interventions to reduce disease impacts.<\/p>\n
3. The emissions scenarios RCP8.5 and 4.5 take time to diverge and there is
\n little difference between the scenarios for the timing of the various
\n disease-promoting conditions being met. This is further evidence that
\n reducing stress caused by local human activities will be critically
\n important to reducing disease impacts in the coming decades.<\/p>\n
The role of disease as a significant driver of future reef community
\n composition is under-appreciated, especially in the Indo-Pacific. Our paper
\n strongly suggests disease needs to be given greater consideration in
\n management planning. Further, we need to develop more early warning tools
\n for disease similar to the few already developed and the tools available
\n for monitoring bleaching risk from NOAA Coral Reef Watch.<\/p>\n
The article can be accessed from the front page here:<\/p>\n
http:\/\/www.nature.com\/nclimate\/journal\/vaop\/ncurrent\/full\/nclimate2625.html<\/a><\/p>\n A short story about the article:<\/p>\n http:\/\/www.news.cornell.edu\/stories\/2015\/05\/scientists-expect-more-coral-disease-under-climate-change<\/a><\/p>\n Our author team: Jeff Maynard, Ruben van Hooidonk, Mark Eakin, Marjetta *Funders: NOAA Climate Program Office and US National Science Foundation.<\/p>\n — We’d like to bring your attention to a paper recently published in *Nature Climate Change *titled: *Projections of climate conditions that increase coral disease susceptibility and pathogen abundance and virulence. * We present and compare climate model projections of temperature conditions that will increase coral susceptibility to disease, pathogen abundance and pathogen virulence under both … Continue reading Coral-list: Jeffrey Maynard announces Nature Climate Change publication “Projections of Climate Conditions that increase coral disease susceptibility and pathogen abundance and virulence.”<\/span>
\n Puotinen, Melissa Garren, Gareth Williams, Scott Heron, Joleah Lamb,
\n Ernesto Weil, Bette Willis, and Drew Harvell.<\/p>\n
\n Jeffrey A. Maynard
\n Research Faculty – Dept of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Cornell
\n University
\n Research Scientist – CRIOBE & EPHE\/CNRS of Moorea, Polynesia and Paris,
\n France.
\n Manager – Marine Applied Research Center, North Carolina.
\n P (mobile): +1 (910) 616-1096
\n E: maynardmarine@gmail.com
\n Skype: jefmaynard
\n _______________________________________________
\n Coral-List mailing list
\nCoral-List@coral.aoml.noaa.gov
\nhttp:\/\/coral.aoml.noaa.gov\/mailman\/listinfo\/coral-list<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"