(August 2010)<\/p>\n
*SUMMARY: *<\/p>\n
The Coral Reef Watch (CRW) satellite coral bleaching monitoring shows
\nsea surface temperatures (SSTs) have been above average throughout the
\nCaribbean and Gulf of Mexico, and are already above the bleaching
\nthreshold in some areas. The CRW Coral Bleaching Thermal Stress Outlook
\nindicates that there is a high potential for thermal stress capable of
\ncausing coral bleaching in the Caribbean in 2010. The intensity of the
\nstress is likely to increase until mid-October.<\/p>\n
According to the CRW HotSpot, there is currently bleaching-level thermal
\nstress around a large region in the northwestern Pacific, with the
\nhighest stress currently centered on the Philippines. Note that clouds
\nhave covered these areas for a prolonged time period, so satellite data
\nhave not been updated regularly at many locations in this region. This
\nmay be causing the CRW products to overestimate the thermal stress. The
\noutlook shows that the thermal stress in the northeastern Philippines is
\nexpected to linger into September. The potential of high thermal stress
\nis predicted to spread east into Guam, the Commonwealth of the Northern
\nMariana Islands, the Federated States of Micronesia, and the surrounding
\nareas. Dissipation of this thermal stress may begin in mid- to
\nlate-October.<\/p>\n
The southern hemisphere and the entire Indian Ocean basin are expected
\nto remain free from significant bleaching thermal stress through
\nNovember 2010.<\/p>\n
(See full alert message with figures at *************************************** ———————————– The CRW satellite monitoring shows that the development of thermal —————————— The CRW Coral Bleaching Thermal Stress Outlook continues to indicate a —————————————————- In 2005, a record breaking mass coral bleaching event in the Caribbean In 2005, the active hurricane season cooled waters in the Florida Keys ————————— The thermal stress that caused bleaching in Southeast Asia has abated, ————————— The high temperatures that have caused mass coral bleaching in the With the 2009-2010 El Ni\u00f1o, the Indian Ocean experienced significant The thermal stress has now dissipated in the Indian Ocean and most of The CRW bleaching outlook has been predicting well the overall high Time series graphics for index sites can be found at: You can sign up for automated bleaching alerts at: Please report bleaching events (or non-events) at: ============================ Special thanks to Coral-list<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" (August 2010) *SUMMARY: * The Coral Reef Watch (CRW) satellite coral bleaching monitoring shows sea surface temperatures (SSTs) have been above average throughout the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, and are already above the bleaching threshold in some areas. The CRW Coral Bleaching Thermal Stress Outlook indicates that there is a high potential for thermal … Continue reading NOAA Coral Reef Watch: Analysis of Current Coral Bleaching Thermal Stress & Seasonal Guidance through November 2010<\/span>
\nhttp:\/\/coralreefwatch.noaa.gov\/satellite\/bleachingoutlook\/index.html<\/a>)<\/p>\n
\n*Caribbean Analysis and Outlook: *<\/p>\n
\n\/Current conditions:\/<\/p>\n
\nstress has already started in the Caribbean, bearing a similar signature
\nto the thermal stress observed at the same time period in 2005, the year
\nof a record mass coral bleaching event. SSTs in most of the Caribbean
\nregion and tropical Atlantic Ocean have been significantly above the
\nnormal for most of 2010. Temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico and Florida
\nKeys increased dramatically in early May, rising nearly 2\u00b0C over several
\ndays at some locations. Warming in Florida followed an extreme cold
\noutbreak in January 2010 that resulted in significant coral mortality..
\nTwo tropical storms (Alex in June and Bonnie in July) and other tropical
\ndepressions have temporarily relieved some thermal stress in the
\nnorthern Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and Florida Keys. However, the
\nthermal stress has quickly bounced back in these areas. Bleaching
\nrecently has been reported from parts of Puerto Rico. Degree Heating
\nWeeks currently show low to medium levels of thermal stress built up in
\nthe northern Bahamas and the central Lesser Antilles island arc,
\ncentered east of Dominica and Guadeloupe. DHWs around 4, high enough to
\ncause significant bleaching, have been observed on the Caribbean coast
\nof Panama and Costa Rica.<\/p>\n
\n\/Bleaching outlook: \/<\/p>\n
\nhigh potential for thermal stress capable of causing significant coral
\nbleaching in the Caribbean in 2010. The region potentially at greatest
\nrisk fills the region east from Nicaragua past the island of Hispaniola
\nto Puerto Rico and the Lesser Antilles, and south along the Caribbean
\ncoasts of Panama and South America. The intensity of the potential
\nthermal stress is predicted to increase until mid-October. The Caribbean
\ntypically experiences elevated temperature during the second year of an
\nEl Ni\u00f1o event, with the 2009-2010 El Ni\u00f1o ending in May 2010. The region
\ndescribed here as having the highest potential to experience
\nbleaching-levels of thermal stress is the same region that has been
\nanomalously warm for most of 2010.<\/p>\n
\n\/Comparison to the 2005 mass bleaching event: \/<\/p>\n
\nalong with the most active hurricane season on record in the Atlantic
\nOcean followed a similar pre-bleaching season SST anomaly pattern. This
\npreheating increases the likelihood that temperatures will exceed
\nbleaching thresholds during the following bleaching season, indicating
\nhigh potential for thermal stress above levels required for significant
\ncoral bleaching.<\/p>\n
\nand Gulf of Mexico greatly reducing the coral bleaching stress. However,
\nthe lack of tropical cyclones around the Lesser Antilles contributed to
\nconsistently warm temperatures in the epicenter of the 2005 mass coral
\nbleaching event. This year, two tropical storms (Alex in June and Bonnie
\nJuly) and other tropical depressions have temporarily relieved some
\nthermal stress in the northern Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and Florida
\nKeys. However, the thermal stress has quickly bounced back in these
\nareas. Given the record-breaking mass coral bleaching in 2005 and the
\nsimilarity in the pattern of the thermal stress between this year and
\n2005, the development of this year\u2019s thermal stress in the Caribbean
\nneeds to be monitored closely.
\n****************************************
\n*Northwestern Pacific Analysis and Outlook: *<\/p>\n
\n\/Current conditions: \/<\/p>\n
\nbut stress has moved into the central and northern Philippines.
\nTemperatures across much of the western tropical Pacific are above
\nnormal at the moment, especially along the west coast of the Philippines
\nwhere bleaching has been reported. However, the Alert Level 2 areas seen
\nin the Gulf of Thailand and the eastern South China Sea may be over
\nestimated, as three months of persistent cloud cover have prevented
\nupdates to the satellite SST data since May 2010 at some locations.<\/p>\n
\n\/Bleaching outlook: \/<\/p>\n
\nPhilippines may persist in the northern-most Philippines into September.
\nAs the summer continues in the northern hemisphere, our outlook shows
\nthat temperatures in the northwestern Pacific will increase during the
\nnext few months. The outlook indicates that there is a high potential of
\nthermal stress capable of causing bleaching in Guam, CNMI (Commonwealth
\nof the Northern Mariana Islands), FSM (Federated States of Micronesia),
\nand the surrounding areas until late October and early November.
\n********************************************
\n*Indian Ocean 2010 Bleaching Season Retrospective: *<\/p>\n
\ncoral bleaching thermal stress since the beginning of this year in a
\nspatial pattern similar to that seen in 1998. Most of the northern
\nIndian Ocean and Southeast Asia regions have been experiencing intensive
\nthermal stress. Significant bleaching has been reported in the Maldives,
\nboth sides of the Thai Peninsula (Andaman Sea and Gulf of Thailand),
\nMalaysia, Singapore, Cambodia, parts of Indonesia, and the Anilao region
\nof the Philippines. Bleaching was observed in southwestern and
\nnortheastern Madagascar earlier this year.<\/p>\n
\nSoutheast Asia. Many areas in this region have been experiencing
\npersistent cloud cover since early May, which should be favorable for
\ncorals\u2019 recovery from the mass bleaching.<\/p>\n
\nthermal stress in the Indian Ocean since the beginning of 2010,
\nindicating an active bleaching season. However, our outlook issued
\nearlier this year under-predicted the high thermal stress observed in
\nthe Bay of Bengal and over-predicted the thermal stress in the region
\noff Sumatra where low levels of thermal stress were observed. This is
\nmost likely caused by the relatively low skill level of the LIM model
\n(the SST prediction model of the CRW outlook system) in the Bay of
\nBengal and off Sumatra. Further evaluation and testing of a new scheme
\nto refine the LIM are underway to improve the skill in this region.
\n*******************************************
\n[Note: The Bleaching Outlook discussed below is an experimental product
\nand should be used as an indicator of potential general patterns rather
\nthan a precise predictor of thermal stress at any location. Actual
\nconditions may vary due to model uncertainty, subsequent changes in
\nclimatic conditions, extreme localized variability, or weather patterns.]
\n*******************************************
\nCurrent HotSpot and Degree Heating Week charts and data formatted for
\nHDF and Google Earth can be found at:
\nhttp:\/\/coralreefwatch.noaa.gov\/satellite\/index.html<\/a><\/p>\n
\nhttp:\/\/coralreefwatch.noaa.gov\/satellite\/current\/sst_series_24reefs.html<\/a>
\nand
\nhttp:\/\/coralreefwatch.noaa.gov\/satellite\/current\/experimental_products.html<\/a><\/p>\n
\nhttp:\/\/coralreefwatch-satops.noaa.gov\/SBA.html<\/a><\/p>\n
\nhttp:\/\/www.reefbase.org\/contribute\/bleachingreport.aspx<\/a><\/p>\n
\nNOAA Coral Reef Watch
\ncoralreefwatch@noaa.gov<\/a><\/p>\n